When last we checked in with some of the city’s real estate-related prognosticators (for their Year Ahead predictions for 2024), the biggest issue they’d been stressing over was affordable housing. And although almost no one at this time last year foresaw the homeowners’ insurance crisis, that and affordable housing will likely loom as perennial issues worthy of Santa Feans’ attention, probably—unfortunately—for years to come. And though it may sound like a comment from Captain Obvious, the two biggest issues facing Home readers in 2025 will likely relate to whatever repercussions stem from President Donald Trump’s promises for tariffs (a 60% tariff on goods from China and a 20% tariff on everything else the United States imports) and his determination to deport millions of illegal immigrants. If either or both plans go through as proposed, the effects could range anywhere from stinging to disastrous. That’s because Santa Fe, perhaps more so than most American cities, largely depends on its service workers and its builders’ community—both of which lean heavilyon immigrant employees.
So, instead of dwelling too much on the possible fallout from either of those two campaign promises, Home asked some of the City Different’s movers and shakers what else might be of note for 2025—and not just issues but projects, design innovations, planning proposals, ideas, whatever they see coming down the pike that’s good, bad, worrisome or worth looking forward to. And, yes, most couldn’t help but focus on housing—or projects out there that hope to alleviate it directly or indirectly.
In a nutshell. I think that in this next six months the high-end real estate market will boom, as well as the stock market. But at the eight-month mark, we’re going to see a huge correction. I don’t know that it’s going to affect the 1%—they’ll still have a fairly wide range of homes available in their bracket.
But in contracting, we’re going to see those costs for building become more and more intense because they’re not going to be able to afford thelabor costs that it takes to build what they’re building. So we’re going to see the new housing market slow substantially. Although, for those guys who have something in the hopper right now on a spec basis, they’re gonna do just fine. But right after that eight-month mark, don’t start building. That’s my admonition.
Realtor, Santa Fe Properties
We are looking forward to seeing the planning for Tierra Content Phase III get started in 2025. The Housing Trust has built several subdivision developments in Tierra Contenta. Most recently Arroyo Oeste north of SWAN Park. The goal is to be able to provide 40% of all the lots and homes we sell as affordable ones in Tierra Contenta, and that can only be achieved with high density and assistance from the City of Santa Fe when it comes to streamlined approvals and infrastructure installation.
CEO, Community Housing Trust
I’d say the biggest and trickiest issue for Santa Fe is affordable housing along with density of housing. It does seem that housing projects are being built (still not enough though?), but because of overly prescriptive historical preservation ideas, and a lot of NIMBYism, housing development is taking place further and further out, which increases traffic, infrastructure costs and seems to perpetuate class and economic differences as well. Density is restricted by the fights over building height and in cases like the former Empire Steel & Hardware block, local residents are already up in arms about replacing those 2-3 story buildings with anything similar.
Capital Flats on Cordova also faced a lot of opposition to its height, yet the State buildings across the street have been there for decades with greater height and mass. I think that the divisiveness (racial and socio-economic divides) experienced today with Plaza/Historic District versus Cerrillos Road corridor/Southside is a long-term result of the City’s 1950 Master plan from the [late ‘Dean of Comprehensive City Planning’] Harland Bartholomew.
Community builder, design strategist and cofounder of
Rinse Design and The Design Corps
Projects like Midtown, Tierra Contenta, and transformative changes in Planning and Land Use are setting the stage for Santa Fe’s future while honoring its past. The redevelopment of the Midtown site marks a once-in-a-generation opportunity to shape Santa Fe’s economic and cultural future. Guided by the Master Development Plan and Community Development Plan, the project reflects the community’s vision for a thriving hub of film, education and opportunity. Aspect Studios, the anchor investment at Midtown, will establish New Mexico’s largest film production studio. This catalytic project will drive additional investment, solidify Santa Fe as a leader in the creative economy and deliver long-term benefits for future generations.
Midtown isn’t just a redevelopment—it’s a catalyst that will spark additional projects, attract investors, and transform the site into a thriving center of arts, culture and economic opportunity. Established by the City of Santa Fe in 1994, Tierra Contenta is one of Santa Fe’s greatest success stories. This year marks the launch of Phase III, a partnership between Tierra Contenta Corporation and Homewise to deliver:
• Up to 1,500 new homes, with 40% reserved for affordable housing.
• A new school site, mixed-use development and public parks that promote connected, sustainable living.
• Innovative “missing middle” housing options—duplexes, triplexesand casita courts—to meet the needs of diverse income levels.
Santa Fe’s Planning and Land Use Department is charting a bold new course to modernize development while preserving the City’s historic character. Under Heather Lamboy’s leadership, the department has achieved significant milestones that make it easier for residents, developers and businesses to engage with City processes.
Santa Fe is at a turning point. These projects and policies are not just investments in buildings or infrastructure—they are investments in people, culture and Santa Fe’s future.
Economic Development & Communication Administrator
I’m happy to see the City attempting to broker a deal for the Midtown campus, because it’s time to put some boots on the ground and get that ball rolling. I’d definitely be happy to see them utilize the production studios that are already present and build on the infrastructure there so you can incorporate more. And then obviously bring life to the area. It’s a huge swath of land, and it’s time. It’s ready. It needed to happen five years ago.
And I know some people are all about NIMBYism. But I’m like, Heck no, I’m all for it. I grew up in that area, I live in the home I grew up in. Let’s get that place developed. Let’s bring some life into the area. And of course, we need housing. And when I say housing, I mean starter homes, something to allow our workforce, our plumbers, our electricians, our firefighters, our teachers and administrators, people in need of housing.
Having the Tierra Contenta Third Phase, and Homewise stepping in there, saying it’ll be 40% affordable, which, if they hold true to that, that will be a very huge benefit to our community and to the workforce. That’s how generational wealth is built. Real estate is one of the main drivers of that. As far as those “stepper-up homes”—and when I say “stepper-up homes,” I’m talking the $500,000-$700,000 range.
But the City also has the opportunity to incorporate Franklin Miles Park, a section of it, into the Midtown campus. It’s those baseball fields and softball fields that are no longer used, that back parking lot that ties into the campus. I would love to see them if the park isn’t going to be utilized for what it was designed for when I was a kid, let’s repurpose that area. Keep the basketball courts, maybe keep the senior baseball field, the basketball courts, the kids play area. But beyond that, utilize it for affordable housing.
I’ve heard from certain people that that’s political suicide. But as I’ve told them, No, I am your District Four planning commissioner and a district constituent. I live in that neighborhood, and I’m telling you to do this because we need it.
Realtor, Sotheby’s International Realty
There are cool things happening at Siler Rufina. We’re doing our second phase of the studios at Parkway, which is kind of a community development. It has Wild Leaven bakery. It has a barber shop, a locally owned bike store and a lot of small business owners who own their own spaces.
There’s a nonprofit that’ll be putting up some murals in that area. And there’s a new development that’s—I don’t want to say more affordable, but more affordable than a lot of stuff—that [Realtor] Tom Trujillo is doing with Lorn Tryk. They’re targeting the $500,000 to $1.2 million area, which will be good for local developers.
Realtor with Keller Williams and Principal at Palo Santo Designs
Even though the biggest issue we’re facing right now is the fire insurance issue, there’s a benefit here, in the sense that it’s making places like the Galisteo Basin and Lamy, they’re suddenly becoming extremely desirable. Places where you don’t have the restrictions. What we’ve noticed is that people are like, All right, we’re biting the bullet. We’re spending a fortune no matter. What’s most important to us is not so much resale value as just timelessness, and one thing I am so happy about is that that cold, gray Southern California-style is dying—the black-and-white stuff, the black steel. And what we’ve really seen is people taking a turn to warmer colors. Contemporary taupe is back, gray is gone.
People are shifting back to what makes us really special: the golden light, the great weather. We’re not trying to create New York here. So people’s priorities are changing, it’s less the shiny objects and more, I want this to be timeless. I want someone in 20 years to walk through and maybe we upgrade the appliances and technology and stuff, but we’re not tearing out floors, we’re not changing walls. We’re not boxing out with steel. What’s trendy now, it’s gonna be tacky in 10 years. I always want to go timeless. So go timeless with your materials. Go with natural materials as much as possible. The intent is not to make the magazine covers, it’s to create something that’s going to last forever. It’s going to be impervious to trends and styles and natural materials are at the top. So in terms of positive trends, I’ve always gravitated toward the warm, the natural, and luckily, that’s what people are valuing now.
People are letting go of importing the life they had from somewhere else, in the sense that they’re realizing, Well, for how expensive this is, we need this to adhere to Santa Fe style. We need a place that values timelessness.
And we can always tweak it, we can always improve upon things and do a similar esthetic, but incorporate technology, incorporate things that make life better. But the East Side Pueblo will never go out of style, and that will always be kind of a feather in our cap. What I’ve seen across the board is everyone is pushing contemporary. And I can tell you with confidence that soft contemporary is appealing.
Our biggest projects now are people who want traditional, not hyper-traditional, but a classic, a real Pueblo house with adobe and latillas, the real thing. The pivot has been back toward the traditional but reincorporating it in a tasteful way, so it isn’t a kitschy, touristy thing. It’s authentic. It’s a crazy time we’re going into, but it’s a nice mix of contemporary and Pueblo.
Lead architect with Tierra Concepts
There’s a lot of work left to do in the low- and moderate-income housing, both for rental and for ownership. But I really live by this John Muir quote about when you try to pull out any single issue in the world and you find that it’s connected to everything else.
But if you look at the 1,100 homes at Midtown, the 1,500 homes at Tierra Contenta, at maybe another 800 or so out at that northwest quadrant in Las Estrellas and all that land. That’s the big stuff. This is exciting to watch.
The question is: How will our government play a role? Like, How big can we go here, especially this year? And we need them to go big, like, really big. That’s where I think we need to see some pretty ambitious investments in infrastructure. That’s how you’re going to deliver a housing stock and make it affordable to actual working people in Santa Fe and not create people being really cost burdened by either their mortgage or their rent.
So, yes, put in the water, put in the streets and gutters, use bond money or whatever it takes to make the city a partner in those developments. You just have to glue the developer together with the City, so those funds can move. Then I’m excited about what might emerge from that. The money’s there, the will is there. We just need the right creative minds in there to say, Let’s go for it. Let’s apply together—Homewise with other smaller consortium of developers and builders and the City of Santa Fe and the State and let’s figure out how we can pay for the roads, streets and gutters and water and utility infrastructure for something like Tierra Contenta Phase III. And then all of a sudden, all those developers that are actually doing the construction of the homes are like, Wow, I didn’t have to figure out how to come up with millions of dollars for infrastructure. I just have to go build a house.
Now the house can come in at the price point we needed so that Los Alamos scientist who’s living in those South Meadows apartments can get out of there and into that house, and then somebody in the service industry can go move into one of those apartments. So it’s like all these reverse dominoes. It all connects, like that Muir quote. It goes all the way down to the homeless, so that, now there’s availability. People like Esperanza Shelter, St. Elizabeth’s Interfaith Shelter, we’re able to find properties where we can create transitional housing for people.
Executive Director, Santa Fe Area Home Builders Association
